In this sense, strategic foresight is fundamentally different from the notion of five or 10 year plans. Strategic foresight can be defined as a process of creative evaluation that applies available knowledge and forecasting analysis to potential futures. Implementing such a process can be managed and executed within government or by an external organisation. The sfa sets the foundation for the followon report, the framework for future alliance operations ffao. The futures works enables the development of themes and messages and provides support for innovations and resource investments. The role of scenarios in strategic foresight sciencedirect. Theory of and within foresight what does a theory of. Framing, scanning, forecasting, visioning, planning, and. Introduction to foresight and foresight processes in. Strategic foresight group anticipating and influencing.
Typically, planned actions require a substantial period of time for implementation and the actual outcomes from these actions can only be observed after an even longer period. In so doing, they can identify strategic threats to avoid or mitigate as well as new opportunities to exploit. Dawn yip leads a foresight exercise at the undp global. T hrough strategic foresight, we peer through our customers eyes into their world, identify their unmet needs and see new solutions we can provide whether yours is a small shop looking to grow beyond your current set of customers or increase your sales by understanding unmet needs, or a larger. Andy hines in his article, strategic foresight, identifies six critical steps to develop the foresight you need to navigate in this rapidly changing environment. Strategic foresight was launched so the emergency management community can seek to understand how the world is changing, and how those changes may affect the future of emergency management. Strategic foresight workshops the conference board of canada.
Whats your futuresix steps for gaining strategic foresight page 2 scanning the second step is scanning. It enable us to see and shape a deeply desirable future by making and living by wise strategic commitments in the present commitments that are sound and contextsensitive enough to survive context change and actually contribute to the cocreation of a future we desire given this understanding, we note. Strategic guidance derived from foresight and scenariobased planning guides the future operations of the entire organization. Foresight is a strategic thinking capability, so the use of foresight methodologies occurs at this first stage of the strategy development process that is, the use of foresight methodologies seeks to expand the perception of. Playbook for strategic foresight and innovation geniusworks.
Download a free pdf of the playbook no signup needed or buy the print version as one place to start. Unfortunately however, until someone finds a way to break free of the spacetime continuum. It seems that every business has a strategic planning process and if you dont. First, as foresight is a quite ambiguously defined and understood entity, we shortly present our understanding of what foresight is. A highlights sheet is available to download for free. Strategic foresight analysis can help decision makers map the future.
Strategic foresight is a collaborative effort of the emergency management community facilitated by the federal emergency management agency fema. The playbook is packed with multiple methods and techniques, stepbystep instructions, tips, examples, case studies, and more. The book first explores how we think about the future, looking at. Strategic foresight, as a discipline, has been around for decades. One key to professionalizing the foresight field is finding better definitions of what strategic foresight work actually is, and who engages in it. Information and data can be collected with free or commercial tools and solutions. Pdf strategic foresight process improvements for the. Five strategic foresight tools to enhance business model. Strategic foresight is a concept i deem synonymous with corporate foresight. This text is intended as a note for the phd course, strategic foresight in engineering. All available for free download whether innovation means finding the next market, describing the future customer, or developing an amazing team who can reliably take new visions to new markets, this playbook addresses two essential topics. Strategic foresight group sfg is a think tank engaged in crafting new policy concepts that enable decision makers to prepare for a future in uncertain times. Reasons for implementing a strategic foresight system.
At its best, the process allows policymakers to explore possible futures, and pursue policies that are most likely to bring them to fruition. Special emphasis is given to scenarios, which are one of the main tools that are used in strategic foresight. He focuses on succession management and leadership development in smallmedium businesses and ministries. Pdf on jan 1, 20, alun rhydderch and others published strategic foresight find, read and cite all the research you need on researchgate.
In contrast, strategic foresight concentrates on anticipating those forces that may come into play to. For one, resultsbased management rbm demands an enhanced cohe1. It is about mirroring the possible and potential futures against the understanding of organizationspecific capabilities, and those of ones competitors. Not a report a carefully designed and purposeful intervention strategic foresight is a learning process. Whats the difference between strategic planning and strategic foresight. The six ps of strategic foresight the foresight guide. Founded in 2002 to create new forms of intellectual capital, our body of work today encompasses over 50 countries, across four continents. A practical approach to strategic foresight and scenarios. In a complex and uncertain world accurate prediction is a fiction. The second part is an introduction to foresight processes in practice. Strategic foresight is generally focused at the mid or longterm time frame.
Strategic foresight, also known as futures studies, is a discipline organizations use to gather and process information about their future operating environment. Article information, pdf download for strategic foresight in the federal. The mastering strategic foresight programme is a unique and exclusive threeday foresight leadership programme designed for forwardlooking senior decisionmakers who want to advance their capacity for strategic action and achieve valueadding impact through the use of strategic foresight. It presents the main principles of strategic foresight from a practitioners point of view, including an approach by which you can learn about the future and study trends, drivers and signals of change.
It starts by discussing the need for strategic foresight over the next decade, and a set of qualities, structures and processes that facilitate the use of strategic foresight for renewal. The full innovation leaders guide to strategic foresight is available for download strategic foresight enables organizations to build a proprietary view of. A brief overview of strategic foresight workshop slides. Keywords strategic foresight, federal government, strategic planning. Traditionally, it is a highly theoretical discipline. Two components are organically linked to strategic foresight. Download the guide to learn more, and find out how strategic foresight can help your firm stand strong even in unexpected storms. Strategic foresight analysis usually involves the following stages. What you learn here will help you coach and inspire those around you, as well as advance your own efforts in strategic foresight and innova on. Strategic foresight enables leaders to ask better questions about the future, make strategic choices explicit and support the discovery, design and consideration of more and better options for action. Frankjurgen richter, former director of the world economic forum,introduced the seminar series managing global challenges. In strategic foresight, practitioners study how to proactively plan and create the future. Strategic foresight requires a longer and broader view of the environment and, as we at the institute for alternative futures iaf would argue, a conscious attention to the organizations vision and visionary scenarios in the environment.
Download the handbook to learn how cities are innovating with intention to. Strategic foresight also provides insights into and the basis for what should be assessed and. Strategic foresight methodology to identify business opportunities and technology trends, publisher. At the strategic foresight workshop, you will learn about tools and methods you can use to help you identify future scenarios, analyze the impacts of those futures, and better enable you to prepare and make appropriate decisions today. The strategic foresight analysis sfa 2017 report aims to support nato leaderships visualization of the future secu rity environment, which is c haracterized by a rapid rate of change, complexity, uncertainty and interconnectedness. The requirement for institutional foresight is affirmed by recent. Look for this icon to find more strategic foresight. Major corporate companies have been leveraging the power of foresight for years. Whats your futuresix steps for gaining strategic foresight. Strategic foresight and government to bind themselves into rigid positions. The case for strategic foresight as design tool the design needed and practiced in government departments and the broader public sector is often of a systemic nature. The futures school takes the theory and makes it actionable. Scanning is the process of looking internally and externally to identify what is on the horizon that may impact the organization relative to the issues you framed in the prior step. The strategic foresight analysis sfa 20 report was the product of initial efforts to establish institutional foresight within act to provide nato, national leaders and defence planners with a common perspective of the challenges facing the alliance in the decades to come.
Download prescient introduction to strategic foresight prescientguideintroductiontostrategicforesight. Our field must recognize all the parts of itself as it grows up, so we can better share and compare our models and methods, and do better collaborative work on foresight. This information can include, for example, trends and developments in their political. Strategic foresight is not about predictions of the future. The article suggests the key ideas that one needs to think about in doing strategic foresight in todays environment of small staffs, tight budgets, and emphasis on the. This presentation and the strategic foresight playbook were. This article discusses the role of scenarios in strategic foresight. While strategic planning is a vital competency for todays leaders as they craft a vision for the future, an equally important leadership competency is strategic foresight to anticipate how this future might unfold. Pdf strategic foresight methodology to identify business. Download free ebooks at please click the advert 4 strategic management contents 1 introduction 7 2 the basis of strategy. While subtle, there is a distinction between vision and foresight. This article is an excerpt from the recently published ppai strategic foresight playbook. Note this post is part of a series on using strategic foresight to influence longerrange innovation investments. Adam gordon, an instructor on aalto university executive educations strategic foresight program, the problem with forecasting lies not so much in the quality of the data analytics but in a fundamental misunderstanding about where quantitative analysis is an appropriate tool for inquiry and where techniques for qualitative.
The case for strategic foresight as design tool canadian. The six ps of strategic foresight using the core thinking types well. Strategic foresight instead, is about being prepared for different futures that are all possible, plausible and preferred. A quick and clean guide to creating foresight by richard a k lum, strategic foresight. Strategic foresight advice should be broadly based, and wherever possible backed up by empirical evidence, so that it can be contested and debated by others in the policy domain. Strategic foresight is the ability to create and maintain a highquality, coherent, and functional forward view and to use the insights arising in organizationally useful ways. One famous example is the energy petrochemical giant royal dutch shell.